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Comprehensive Plan Transportation Element • Model Validation Prior to its use as a tool for projecting needs, the Indian River County traffic model was validated using 2000 base year data. The traffic model is the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure (FSUTMS) traffic model that, when run with the Indian River County highway network and socioeconomic data as inputs, predicts future traffic on area roads for desired projection years. In validating the traffic model, Census records, state labor department employment statistics, and other sources to estimate Indian River County's population and employment data for 2000 were used. The 2000 data were then projected through 2030. These data are summarized in Table 4.6. The socioeconomic data were then used in the model validation process and in the prediction of future traffic levels for the long range plan needs analysis. The 2030 socioeconomic data projections used in the travel demand forecasting model were based on the County's future land use map. Using the map as a control, the MPO projected single and multi family dwelling units, hotel/motel units, school enrollment, and employment for 2030 by traffic analysis zones. While this methodology is standard, the results do not reflect the impact of some of the land use initiatives incorporated within this plan. To the extent that traditional neighborhood development (TND) projects are built, other mixed use projects are developed, land uses are connected, bike/ped facilities are built, and transit service is enhanced, the model results may overestimate the number of vehicle trips that the socioeconomic data projections suggest. Overall, the model validation process involved running the FSUTMS model to obtain predicted 2000 roadway traffic volumes and then comparing those model -predicted roadway volumes to actual 2000 field -collected traffic counts. Based upon the comparison of predicted to observed volumes, minor changes were made to the model's parameters. This change in parameters allowed the model to approximate predicted roadway volumes to actual roadway volumes. Through this process, an acceptable projected -to -actual ratio was obtained. With this process complete, the model was then considered valid for the purpose of predicting future traffic levels using future -year socioeconomic data projections. • Needs Analysis The validated model was then run using 2030 socioeconomic data and the existing and committed road network. This model run was performed to develop 2030 traffic demand projections under the assumption that no capacity -producing roadway improvements would be made from 2010 to 2030. In other words, this model run assessed the impact of 20 years of growth on the existing and committed roadway network. This model run also identified roadway deficiencies resulting from the growth in travel demand over this 20 -year time period. A deficient roadway is defined as any roadway having a level of service condition that exceeds the adopted roadway performance standard. With this process, all deficient roadways became candidates for potential future road widening projects and were tested to determine whether Community Development Department Indian River County 56