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Comprehensive Plan introductory Element TABLE 1.13 HOUSEHOLDS AND PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD Households Persons/ Persons/ Year (IRC) % Change House -Hold % Change House -Hold (FL) Change 1980 23,331 89.3 2.49 -14.1 2.55 -12.1 1990 38,057 63.1 2.33 -6.4 2.46 -3.5 2000 49,137 29.1 2.30 -1.3 2.52 2.4 2005 56,450 2.5% 2.26 -1.9% 2.46 -2.4% 2006 59,250 5.0% 2.24 -0.9% 2.46 0.0% 2007 61,300 3.5% 2.23 -0.4% 2.45 -0.4% Source: U.S. Census of Population, & University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research Due to several factors, average household size is decreasing throughout the United States. These factors include families having fewer children and delaying the birth of children; young adults no longer living with parents but moving out on their own, and older persons living longer and not returning to their children in their later years. Combined, these factors have led to a decrease in the average household size. As indicated in Table 1. 13, the average household size in Indian River County, already less than the state's, is decreasing. The pace of that decrease, however, slowed down in the eighties, and even further slowed in the nineties. Population Projections Population projections are essential tools in any planning activity. For land use planning, the amount of population growth determines future requirements for housing, transportation, recreation, schools and other public and private facilities and services. Using a population projection that is too low will likely result in failure to adequately identify and fund future county facility needs (e.g. roads). Conversely, using a population projection that is too high will result in identifying needs that will occur beyond the forecasted time period. A population projection is, therefore, an attempt to provide an accurate forecast of the future population. As with any forecast, the reliability of a population projection depends on the accuracy of the data, the accuracy of the projection methodology and the accuracy of the assumptions used. In Florida, most county comprehensive plans and long range transportation plans rely on countywide population forecasts prepared by the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). The BEBR population forecasts include "Low", "Medium", and "High" projections by county in five year increments. According to Section 9J-5.005 of the Florida Administrative Code, the BEBR medium series projections should be utilized by communities for their planning activities. Section 9J-5.005 also states that a community may use its own projections, or BEBR low or high series projections, provided sufficient documentation or analysis is provided Community Development Department Indian River County 20