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Appendix "A" Comprehensive Plan Introductory Element community to may use its own projections, or BEBR low or high series projections, provided sufficient documentation or analysis is provided justifying the choice. For Indian River County, BEBR medium series projections are shown in Table 1.14 and constitute the population projections used in this plan. These projections reflect an average annual growth rate of 1.51% through the year 2030. This is a reduced growth rate from previous yearly BEBR projections. This lower growth rate reflects the recent collapse of the housing market and the lingering effects of the worst economic crisis since the 1930s. In the future, most growth will come to the County from the south and north. Because of an increasing scarcity of developable land, population is moving northward into Indian River County in search of housing and land. To the north, the "baby boom" generation is reaching retirement age, and many of these retirees are moving to sunbelt states, including to Florida. As a traditionally agricultural area, Indian River County has a large mass of available vacant land that can accommodate growth from the south and growth from the north. This, coupled with a large inventory of existing platted lots within the county, including existing platted lots dating back to the 1950s and 1960s, indicates that there will continue to be available space for future population growth. TABLE 1.14 POPULATION PROJECTIONS -INDIAN RIVER COUNTY 2010 2015 2020 1 2025 j 2030 BEBR 142,300 155,000 169,300 1 183,400 j 196,900 Source: University of Florida, BE13K, MICI-Kange rrojections /-uuy As with any projection, the probability of error increases as the projection horizon year is extended. It is also difficult to make assumptions about a population 20 years in the future. Because of the importance of migration to the growth of Indian River County, the county's growth is affected by the many economic, social, and political factors at the local, state, regional, national, and global level that impact the decisions of individuals or businesses to relocate to the county. An examination of county, regional and state projections reveals that several factors should be considered in preparing projections. The assumption which forms the basis of these projections is that present demographic trends will continue. These trends include a continued reliance on in - migration for population growth and a resulting influx of many retirees. Since the 1950s, birth rates in the U.S. have declined and are expected to continue to decline. This will result in slower U.S. population growth with an aging of the population. Those over 65, Community Development Department Indian River County 21