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conservation program, restoration measures must be immediate and aggressive to reduce the current rates of decline documented within this scrub -jay population. Loss of the potential scrub -jay habitat identified within the ITP impact area, primarily Unit 17, may reduce the ability to maintain a contiguous Atlantic coast population; however the continuity of this population already appears unstable as a result of severe habitat fragmentation and poor quality scrub -jay habitat conditions that presently characterize the HCP Pian Area. Tite Sebastian north subpopulation will continue to be small and vulnerable to extinction because of low population size unless restoration strengthens the connection of this area to the Sebastian Buffer Reserve, as proposed under this HCP. The proposed NCP provisions of restoring an open landscape to facilitate dispersal between the north subpopulation and the Sebastian Buffer reserve and optimizing habitat quality on 236j- acres on the adjoining North Sebastian Conservation Area is expected to enhance the population persistence probability of tite north subpopulation, and correspondingly, its contribution to the, population size of the nearby Study metapopulation. The Sebastian south subpopulation is vulnerable to extinction, particularly without implementation of the Sebastian HCP. Population persistence probability of the south subpopulation will always be low because of the severe fragmentation that now occurs for almost all of the Atlantic Coast scrub -jay population south of the north subpopulation, Therefore, the potential loss of 2 scrub -jay clusters from the south subpopulation as a result of the proposed action is not expected to adversely impact the viability of the study metapopulation. The core populations critically important to the study metapopulation are located in southBrevard County (Breininger and Qddy 1998). Restoration of tate Unit 17 Pelican Island Elementary School/Sebastian Highlands Scrub Conservation Area, as recommended by the FWS as part of this HCP, should serve to minimize geographic isolation of the southern subpopulation. This will be accomplished by maintaining and enhancing the existing Unit 17 habitat linkage for the occasional dispersal of scrub -jays between the north and south subpopulation, and potentially, to tite study metapopulation (FWS November 12, 1996 correspondence to Indian River County), The proposed long -terns management of optimal scrub -jay habitat conditions at the Scrub -Jay Habitat Compensation Areas will serve to reduce cumulative effects of the proposed action. The vulnerability of ttte study population, especially the south subpopulation, to extinction, particularly without implementation of the proposed HCP is based on the following. Previous studies showed that dispersal tendencies by male Florida scrub -jays are short (rnean = 984' (300 meters)) and that both sexes seldom move far during their lives in natural landscapes (Woolfenden and Fitzpatrick 1984, 1991). Dispersal distances are longer in fragmented landscapes, such as the HCP 63