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Indian River County Manatee Protection and Boating Safety Comprehensive Management Plan BOAT FACILITIES DEMAND Marinas The University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research projects population for Indian River County to reach 124,400 by the year 2005. In comparison, FDEP projects recreational boat registrations to increase to 9,128 in the year 2005. While population growth is projected to increase by nearly 23.7 ;percent between 1995 to 2005, FDEP projects that recreational vessel registrations will increase only by 8.9 percent during the same period, and commercial vessel registrations will remain at the 1995 level. Based on observed increases (15.5 percent) in boat registrations from 1990 to 1997, the FDEP projection for 2005 may be considered a low estimate. As presented in the "existing conditions" portion of this Plan, recreational boat registration in Indian River County increased by 15.4 percent between 1990 and 1997. During this same period, the population of Indian River County increased by 11.1 percent. To determine if any correlation could be established between boating registration and population increase, historical boating registration and population trends were analyzed. There is a strong relationship between these two values and it can be expected that as the population increases boat registration will also increase. In analyzing the need for additional wet slips, it is important to consider the number of boats registered in the county that would potentially utilize a marina. For planning purposes, the following recreational watercraft can be categorically excluded: canoes, PWCs, and recreational boats ander 16 feet (Class 1) in length. These watercraft, which accounted for 4129 boats or approximately 48 per cent of all boat registrations in 1997-1998, are typically stored at places other than wet marinas. Excluding the previously mentioned classes of watercraft reduces potential demand for wet slips to 4378. Furthermore, it can be assumed that all commercial vessels and approximately 50 per cent of Class 1, Class 2, and Class 3 vessels are moored at a marina. Based on this assumption, the total of number of vessels stored at a marina was 2189 in 1997-1998. The January 2000 marina survey recorded a total of 1128 wetslips of which 724 were occupied (64 per cent). This is significantly less than predicted based upon the above noted assumptions, Based on data from FDEP predicted boat registration data, the January 2000 marina survey, and the assumption that no additional wet slips are constructed by 2005, 70 per cent or 788 (an 8.9 per cent increase from 1990) of the available wet slips will be occupied in 2005. Although these data indicate there is no need to increase the number wet slips by 2005, these data do not take market considerations into account. One market consideration is the size of wet slips. For example, these data do not indicate whether or not there will be a need to construct wet slips capable of accommodating larger vessels. Furthermore, these data do not account for the distribution of wet slips between residential and commercial marinas. According to the FIT boating study, commercial and recreational marinas generally have a greater percentage of wet slip occupancy than residential marinas. This observation is even more apparent during the peak season (January to March). For example, the Vero Beach Municipal Marina is currently near 100 per cent capacity, whereas most residential marinas average about 50 per cent capacity. Community Development Department page 47