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manatee mortality (see minutes, Attachment 5). In reviewing the MPP as it is applied to the "test case" of the Sebastian Inlet Marina, an issue has arisen as to the appropriateness of how high water -crafted related manatee mortality is calculated in the MPP as it applies to marina projects. At the November Board meeting, staff presented an overview of four alternative methods for calculating high watercraft -related manatee mortality. As discussed at that meeting, there is a consensus among reviewing entities, including the Marine Advisory / Narrows Watershed Action Committee (MANWAC) and the Save the Manatee Club (SMC), that the existing method ("Method 1") is too restrictive to marina development, particularly in the Sebastian area However, there is disagreement among those entities as to which alternative method is the most appropriate for a revised calculation (see minutes, Attachment 5). Following is a summary of the four alternative methods discussed at the November Board meeting for calculating high manatee watercraft—related mortality, including recommendations by reviewing entities (County staff, FWC staff, MANWAC, SMC) on each method. • Method 1 (Existing formula) Reviewing, Entities Recommendations: All of the reviewing entities agree that this existing method warrants revision. The existing foinrula compares, proportionately, manatee watercraft -related deaths (since 1974) within a three-mile radius of a project to the County's goal of one watercraft -related manatee death per year countywide. An issue with this formula is that it projects the County's goal of one watercraft -related manatee mortality per year into the past, such that the goal -side of the equation is based on one death per year dating back to 1974, the year that manatee mortality data became available. This approach creates an inequity that results in a prohibition on new or expanded marinas in the Sebastian area for at least 35 years. When this was explained to the MANWAC, it was the consensus of those at the MANWAC meeting that the current foi niula warrants revision. • Method 2 (Tune modification of existing formula) Reviewing, Entities Recommendations: this method is supported by SMC and is the "preferred method" of FWC staff It is not recommended by county staff, and is not supported by the majority ofApL4NWAC. "Method 2" modifies the existing formula's timeframe, changing the calculation to date back to 1993 - the year manatee protection speed zones were imposed in the County - instead of dating back to 1974. While staff feels this revised timeframe is more equitable than the current founula, it stills projects the goal of one manatee death per year into the past, which from staff's perspective is not appropriate. • Method 3 (Actual proportionate average) Reviewing Entities Recommendations: the SMC and FWC oppose this method. MANWAC voted 5 to 3 to supported this method, but without consideration of 'Method 4". County staff recommends a modified version (Method 4) that incorporates certain aspects of this method. "Method 3," which was recommended by staff to the MANWAC as a preferred alternative, compares the average of manatee deaths per year within a three-mile radius of a marina project to the actual countywide proportionate average, instead of using the goal of one manatee death per year. Under this altemative, average annual deaths are calculated dating back to 1993. As previously indicated, the MANWAC ultimately voted 5 to 3 to support this alternative. Although staff recommended "Method 3" to MANWAC as the preferred alternative (to Methods 1 and 2), points were raised at the MAIC -WAC meeting that led staff to rethink the calculation. More specifically, a problem with Method 3 is that it does not serve to promote the MPP goal of one watercraft -related manatee death per year. That is because, if actual proportionate averages are used to determine high modality, an area of the lagoon can be determined to have "low" mortality in the future even during a high countywide manatee mortality trend, since it is all relative. As a result, although Method 3 resolves the discrepancy of projecting a goal into the past (since it doesn't do that), it fails to project the County's goal of one manatee death per year countywide into the future. January 15, 2002 36