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Comprehensive Plan Transportation Element <br /> As indicated in the MPO ' s long-range plan, the analysis of projected traffic needs involves three <br /> primary steps : Model Validation, Needs Analysis, and Cost Feasible Analysis . <br /> • Model Validation <br /> Prior to its use as a tool for projecting needs, the Indian River County traffic model was validated <br /> using 1996 base year data. The traffic model is the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model <br /> Structure (FSUTMS) traffic model that, when run with the Indian River County highway <br /> network and socioeconomic data as inputs, predicts future traffic on area roads for desired <br /> projection years. <br /> In validating the traffic model, Census records, state labor department employment statistics, and <br /> other sources to estimate Indian River County population and employment data for 49%2000 <br /> were used. The 499(2000 data were then projected through 292 2030. These data are <br /> summarized in Table 4. 6 . The socioeconomic data were used in the model validation process <br /> and in the prediction of future traffic levels for the long range plan needs analysis . <br /> The -2 2-52030 socioeconomic data projections used in the travel demand forecasting model were <br /> based on the County' s fixture land use map . Using the map as a control, single and multi family <br /> dwelling units, hotel/motel units, school enrollment, and employment were projected for <br /> 28252030 by traffic analysis zones. <br /> While this methodology is standard, the results do not reflect the impact of some of the land use <br /> initiatives incorporated within this plan. To the extent that traditional neighborhood <br /> development (TND) projects are built, other mixed use projects are developed, land uses are <br /> connected, bike/ped facilities built, and transit service enhanced, the model results may <br /> overestimate the number of vehicle trips that the socioeconomic data projections suggest. <br /> The model validation process involves running the FSUTMS model to obtain predicted <br /> 19962000 roadway traffic volumes and then comparing those model-predicted roadway volumes <br /> to actual 4-9%2000 field-collected traffic counts . Based upon the comparison of predicted to <br /> observed volumes, minor changes are made to the model's parameters . This change in <br /> parameters allows the model to approximate predicted roadway volumes to actual roadway <br /> volumes . Through this process, an acceptable projected-to-actual ratio is obtained. With this <br /> process complete, the model is then considered valid for the purpose of predicting future traffic <br /> levels using future-year socioeconomic data projections. <br /> • Needs Analysis <br /> The validated model was run using 282§2030 socioeconomic data and the existing and <br /> committed road network. This model run was performed to develop 28232030 traffic demand <br /> projections under the assumption that no capacity-producing roadway improvements would be <br /> made from "' ^"�B25 . 2010 to 2030 . In other words, this model ran assessed the impact of 20 <br /> years of growth on the existing and committed roadway network. This model run also identified <br /> roadway deficiencies resulting from the growth in travel demand over this 20-year time period. <br /> Community Development Department Indian River County 54 <br />