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Comprehensive Plan Introductory Element The average household size is decreasing in the United States due to several factors. Families are having fewer children and delaying the birth of children; young adults are no longer living with parents but moving out on their own, and older persons are living longer and not returning to their children in their later years. Combined, these factors have led to a decrease in the average household size. As indicated in Table 1.13, the average household size in Indian River County, already less than the state's, is decreasing. The pace of that decrease, however, slowed down in the eighties, and even further slowed in the nineties. Population Projections Population projections are an essential tool in any planning activity. For land use planning, the amount of population growth determines future requirements for housing, transportation, recreation, schools and other public and private facilities and services. Using a population projection that is too low will likely result in failure to adequately identify and fund future county facility needs (i.e. roads). Conversely, using a population projection that is too high will result in identifying needs that will occur beyond the forecasted time period. A population projection is, therefore, an attempt to provide an accurate forecast of the future population. As with any other forecast, the reliability of a population projection depends on the accuracy of data, the projection methodology and the assumptions used. In Florida, most county comprehensive plans and long range transportation plans rely on countywide population forecasts prepared by the University of Flonda's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). The BEBR population forecasts include "Low", "Medium", and "High" forecasts by county in five year increments. Section 9J-5.005 of the Florida Administrative Code states that BEBR medium series projections should be utilized by communities for their planning activities. Alternatively, Section 9J-5.005 also states that a community may use its own projections, or BEBR low or high series projections, provided sufficient documentation or analysis is provided justifying the choice. While most communities use the BEBR medium forecasts, some Florida counties have determined that the BEBR "medium" forecast does not adequately reflect anticipated growth. This conclusion is supported by the findings contained within the BEBR population study titled Projections ofFlorida Population by County 2003 - 2030 (BEBR February 2004). That study provides a summary of the methodologies applied to develop the low, medium, and high forecasts These forecasts begin with four statistical models, from which a total of eight projections are made. The highest and lowest projections are excluded from consideration, and the medium forecast is.calculated by taking the average of the six remaining projections. The low and high projections are included "to provide an indication of uncertainty surrounding the medium projections". The report further states that; two - Community Development Department Indian River County Supplement #_; Ordinance 2005- 17