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Comprehensive Plan Introductory Element thirds of all county forecasts should fall within the low and high forecasts. According to BEBR's own analysis, 22 of Florida's 67 county forecasts do not match BEBR's medium population forecasts, and will not even be within the range of the low and medium forecasts. Additionally, the report states "Given Florida's population growth history, the probability that a county's future population will be above the high projection is greater than the probability that it will be below the low projection." For Indian River County, BEBR medium series projections reflect an average growth rate of 1.7% through the year 2030. This projected county growth rate is lower than what recent historical data indicate. For instance, Indian River County's 2003 growth rate was 2.5%, while the county's 2004 growth rate was 4.6%. In fact, the growth rate within Indian River County over the past five years has remained above 2.10%. It is expected that the growth trends occurring within Indian River County over the past five years will continue through 2030. This conclusion is supported by a recognition that there is an increasing scarcity of developable land in southeast Florida. As a result, population is moving northward into Indian River County in search of cheaper housing and land. In addition, it is commonly recognized and understood that the "baby boom" generation is reaching retirement age and that many of the retirees are moving to the sunbelt states, including to Florida, and Indian River County. As a traditionally agricultural area, Indian River County has a large mass of available vacant land that can accommodate growth from the south and growth from the north. In fact, the county has recently been experiencing an increase in the number of rezoning requests, proposed housing projects, and potential developer inquiries. This, coupled with the large inventory of existing platted lots within the county from approved development projects, including existing platted lots dating back to the 1950's and 1960's, indicates that there will continue to be available space for future population growth. Given the combination of national and regional demographic trends, recent development activity, and the availability of land, a linear regression analysis was determined to be the best approach to evaluating population growth within the County. The analysis was performed with population growth over the past five years (2000 — 2004 time period) being the independent variable. The resulting analysis yielded an average growth rate of 2.1% through 2030, a rate which is higher than the BEBR medium forecast of 1.7% for the same period. Table 1.14 includes the BEBR medium series projections as well as adjusted numbers based on recent trend analysis. Community Development Department Indian River County Supplement #_; Ordinance 2005- 18