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Comprehensive Plan IRC Adjusted BEBR 2010 139,100 TABLE 1.14 POPULATION PROJECTIONS INDIAN RIVER COUNTY 2015 151,500 • 2020 175,322 2025 Introductory Element 2030 208,478 186,200 Source: University of Florida, BEBR, Mid -Range Projections 2004; Indian River County MPO As with any projection, the probability of error increases as the projection horizon year is extended. It is also difficult to make assumptions about a population 20 years in the future. Because of the importance of migration to the growth of Indian River County, there are many economic, social, and political factors at the local, state, regional, national, and global level that could impact the decision of individuals or businesses to relocate. An examination of the county, regional and state projections reveals that several factors should be considered in preparing projections for the future In the future, growth will be a major factor with which local government and the state must contend. By the year 2030, Indian River County will add approximately 81,682 residents or nearly 3,315 additional residents per year. By that time the four county Treasure Coast region will increase from about 1.9 million to nearly 2.7 million residents. With respect to the state, the Census Bureau projects that Florida will likely become the third most populous state with over 20 million residents, by 2025. During this period, the county will increase ata faster pace than the state and the region. Throughout the planning period, the percentage change of population for Indian River County will be higher than both the state and the region. This percent will decline for all three areas over time. The basic assumption which forms the basis of these projections is that present demographic trends will continue. These include a continued reliance on in -migration for population growth and a resulting influx of many retirees. Birth rates in the U.S. have declined since the 1950's and are expected to continue to decline. The result of this will be slower U.S. population growth with an aging of the population. Those over 65 have shown a desire to relocate to locations, which offer the high quality of life, which is often associated with the mild climate and relatively low cost of living. These are charactenstics applicable to Florida. Indian River County's population growth, therefore, is expected to continue to be fueled by in - migration, with a great many of these being retired persons. Community Development Department Indian River County Supplement #; Ordinance 2005- 19