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Comprehensive Plan Public School Facilities Element Table 12.12: Public School Student Enrollment entary Schools le Schools Schools otal T Student Population from 2007 through 2013 School The data used to forecast student population were obtained from the FDOE. Since the 1998/99 school year, five charter schools have been established: in the county. These are Sebastian Charter Junior High, North County Charter, St. Peter's Academy, Indian River Academy, and Indian River Charter High School. As a result of the addition of these schools, the FDOE enrollment data for the School District showed an estimated average of 555 fewer students per year. When these students were accounted for in the School District's enrollment projections, the number of students in the appropriate grades and years were adjusted through the use of the enrollment ratios developed for this P11blic school forecast4,.,...,,1,1: ��" 1 . This process specified a regression model for each grade level as follows: Students grade x, year — Const. + A * Studentsgradex-1, year 1-1 +,82 * population growth This regression model specifies ro'ects student population in a given year as a function of unobservable factors (captured by the constant term), cohort survival (the number and percentage of students advancing in grade), and a percentage of population growth. Changes in any of these trends from one year to the next can have a significant impact on the number of students ultimately enrolled. For example, the high school driver's license law change in 1997 resulted in fewer high school dropouts statewide in 1999 and 2000. Similarly, increases in population growth and changing development patterns can result in more students than the cohort survival method may predict. This regression model was refined and adjusted on a grade -by -grade basis to build the student forecast models with the highest degree of predictability. Community Development Department Indian River County 20