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<br />2013 Louis Berger study for the PIK toggle notes, dated April 3, 2013,
<br />Florida Ridership and Revenue Study.")
<br />was titled "All Aboard
<br />The 2013 Louis Berger study included the following Table 6.3-1 providing ridership and revenue
<br />projections for the first year of stabilized operation following the ramp -up period:
<br />Table 6.3-1
<br />.::
<br />. .•atedtirstisTot
<br />'Volume
<br />J�Reienu,e'
<br />Forecast Summary - All Aboard Florida -
<br />Base Case
<br />Volume
<br />274,244
<br />563,145
<br />$45.36
<br />$25,541,656
<br />Annual Segment Volumes and Revenues, 2019 (First Stabilized Year Following Ramp -up)
<br />520,358
<br />528,179
<br />!Nevem, in 2012 Sl
<br />$29.90
<br />$31,347,885
<br />Fort Lauderdale/ Miami
<br />660,793
<br />664,327
<br />1,325,120
<br />$29.55
<br />$39,156,773
<br />Subtotal
<br />Average of
<br />1,466,750
<br />2,936,802
<br />$32.70
<br />$96,046,313
<br />Assumed
<br />Northbound
<br />Southbound
<br />Total
<br />Segment
<br />Estimated
<br />Station Pairs
<br />Volume
<br />Volume
<br />Volume
<br />Fare
<br />Revenue
<br />Miami / Fort Lauderdale
<br />277,400
<br />270,400
<br />547,700
<br />$12.56
<br />$6,877,101
<br />Miami / West Palm Beach
<br />362,500
<br />332,300
<br />694,800
<br />$19;08
<br />$13,255,200
<br />Fort Lauderdale / West Palm Beach
<br />362,900
<br />339,100
<br />702,000
<br />$14.85
<br />$10,421,700
<br />Total
<br />1,002,700
<br />941,800
<br />1,944,500
<br />$15.71
<br />$30,554,000
<br />Source: LEG, 2012.
<br />The 2017 Louis Berger study included the following Table 5-5 providing ridership and revenue
<br />projections for the first year of stabilized operation following the ramp -up period:
<br />TABLE 5-5 FORECAST BRIGHTUNE — ANNUAL SEGMENT VOLUMES AND REVENUES, 2020 (2016 $)
<br />Station.
<br />.::
<br />. .•atedtirstisTot
<br />'Volume
<br />J�Reienu,e'
<br />Miami / West Palm Beach
<br />288,901
<br />Volume
<br />274,244
<br />563,145
<br />$45.36
<br />$25,541,656
<br />Fort Lauderdale/ West Palm Beach
<br />520,358
<br />528,179
<br />1,048,538
<br />$29.90
<br />$31,347,885
<br />Fort Lauderdale/ Miami
<br />660,793
<br />664,327
<br />1,325,120
<br />$29.55
<br />$39,156,773
<br />Subtotal
<br />1,470,052
<br />1,466,750
<br />2,936,802
<br />$32.70
<br />$96,046,313
<br />Source: Louis Berger, 2097
<br />It is evident from a comparison of these two tables that Louis Berger's forecasts have become far
<br />more optimistic during the four year period between its 2013 and 2017 studies. Fares in 2020
<br />(the first year after ramp -up) are projected to be approximately 100% higher (an average fare of
<br />$32.70 instead of $15.71), yet even with much higher fares, there is a projection for 2.94 million
<br />trips, instead of 1.94 million trips — a 52% increase in the number of trips. As a result, revenue
<br />in 2020, as projected in the 2017 Louis Berger study, is expected to be $96 million rather than
<br />the $31 million projected in the 2013 Louis Berger study — a 300% increase in projected
<br />revenues.
<br />It would appear that the staggering 300% increase in Louis Berger's revenue projections for the
<br />project form the keystone of the pro forma financial analysis for the project that FDFC reviewed
<br />in approving the new tax-exempt bond issue. Without the extraordinary increase in projected
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