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Prospective View <br />• Although the FY 2023/2024 tax roll has remained quite strong, a level of uncertainty exists with regard to <br />the overall economy and the impact it may have on the County in the upcoming and ensuing fiscal year(s). <br />The University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Forecasting 2023-2026 Florida Metro Forecast <br />(Spring 2023) reports, "...If predictions of a national economic "storm" come to fruition, the state is well <br />prepared to weather it. The recessions of 2008-2009 and 2020 were Category 5 downturns in the state's <br />economy. This potential recession will be more akin to a tropical depression." As it relates to housing, <br />"Housing starts will be suppressed by the slowdown and higher mortgage rates." While housing starts are <br />projected to decelerate in 2023 and 2024 (something the County is already beginning to see), they are <br />expected to pick up in 2025 and 2026. <br />Whether it be an economic slowdown or a shallow recession, it is projected to be extended. However, rest <br />assured economic activity will be right around the corner. This challenge represents a seminal opportunity <br />for the County to prepare itself to protect and conserve our natural resources and plan for future growth, <br />infrastructure, and the increased demands for services. These opportunities come in the forms of strategic <br />planning, economic development planning, updating the County's Comprehensive Plan, adopting the <br />County's Indian River Lagoon Management Plan, completing a Utility Services Integrated Master Plan, and <br />master planning for our Parks, Recreation, and Conservation areas. <br />Staff intends to closely monitor economic trends and community conditions and maintain a cautious and <br />conservative approach with an optimistic outlook. <br />This message is intended to provide the Board with a general overview of the most significant changes in <br />the proposed FY 2023/2024 budget. A more detailed explanation will be provided during the workshop <br />sessions. <br />Respectfully submitted, <br />John A. Titkanich, Jr., AICP, ICMA-CM <br />County Administrator <br />• <br />14 <br />