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Available forecast data from the County central administration or from individual criminal justice component sources will be reviewed and assessed. As necessary, some of the information collected may require re-validation due to the passage of time or as a result of some major legislative or procedural change. As the study progresses into subsequent tasks, the projections of demand may be modified as alternative approaches are reached through a consensus—building approach. Even though projections of arrests, filings, average daily jail population, and probation case loads will be developed over a 20+year timeframe, the most reliable estimates are generally short-term (i.e.; five years). The study team will work with the PSCC to prepare the forecasts in a manner that is most beneficial to the County's long range planning and budgeting. TASK 2.0 SYSTEM ASSESSMENT AND EVALUATION Working from either an electronic database or from hard copy records as may be available, the Consultant will build a comprehensive analysis of the following indicators: ♦ reported crime rates, ♦ arrests, ♦ court filings, ♦ sentence dispositions, ♦ commitments to incarceration, ♦ new commitments versus probation/parole violators, ♦ probation cases by type of supervision, ♦ numbers in community-based residential and non-residential programs both pre-trial/pre- adjudicated and sentenced/post-adjudicated. Concomitant with this data gathering for the System Analysis, information will be compiled assessing the current operational methodologies and procedures employed within each department, the staffing levels and the space available or required by which to accomplish the current goals and objectives. Along with the data gathering process, an assessment of operational impediments or bottlenecks will be made. The thrust of this second of the task is to assess how effective the current juvenile and adult systems have been in responding to growth demands for personnel, programs, and/or services. Subtask 2.1 Review of Roles and Responsibilities of Components This System Analysis will comprise two elements, including: A review of the component department and its responsibilities, internal operational procedures, staffing levels and space availability; and An evaluation of the alternative and diversionary programs and services for which each division is responsible. The following provides an indication of the type of analysis that will be carried out but is representative only and should not be construed as exclusive. Sheriff and Police Departments: Arrest rate records over a 10 year period will be reviewed along with diversions and other dispositions (street release). Arrest rates will be related to any circumstances that may have had a causal effect such as a change in staffing levels, new or revised legislation, etc. The review will address recent trends, disposition alternatives, policies